Understanding the KPIs
| Today | You want | |
|---|---|---|
| 100 new customers bring in, within 30 days | 8.35 more | 30 more |
| Net referrals per 100 active customers, a month | 7.83 | 25 |
25 net referrals per 100 active customers a month is the customer base producing new customers equal to a quarter of its own size, every month.
What your 30-day K cannot see
Compare your 30-day K with your monthly net referral rate: someone in their first month refers at about the same rate as anyone else. Customers in their first 30 days are only a slice of your customer base. Your 30-day K counts referrals from that slice and nothing else. I would want to know what share of your active base is in its first 30 days, because that number tells you how much of your referral activity your primary KPI cannot see.
30-day K prefers velocity versus overall referral volume. A loop that turns in 30 days compounds far faster than the same loop turning in six months. I would own 0.30. What is missing is that nothing in the KPI set measures what causes a referral in the first place.
When referrals actually happen
Your own numbers say it is not the checkout moment. 1.21% share within 1000 seconds of paying, and the average first referral at 26.8 days.
The 30-day window sits on the weakest part of treatment. Both medicines hold the starting dose for four weeks before the first increase, so every patient your 30-day K measures is on the lowest dose they will ever take, for the whole window. Whatever they have to talk about by day 30, they have it before the medication has properly started.
Potential referral triggers
Besides prompts, there are two potential candidates for what triggers a referral.
- Your reviewers who say why point at the service: the delivery arrived, the process was easy.
- My nine years as a clinical nutritionist point to fat loss results. Most client-to-client referrals in my practice happened when trust in the service builds, and results start to show.
Find where referrals cluster
For the service side of the referrals, take the 26.8 days and look at its shape: one cluster means one moment and one well-timed ask. Two clusters mean two different groups referring for different reasons. Plot the distribution against every dated event you hold: approval, dispatch, delivery, support contact, reorder, referral prompt to find the trigger to optimise around.
For the results side, your app already has a weight tracker, which is purportedly in beta. If not already done, I'd connect it to when the referral ask fires and see if there is correlation.
Clarity on the shape of referrals as they are now will give you what to build and optimise for.
The current referral system at Bolt
Evidence taken from your referral page and Trustpilot reviews
https://www.boltpharmacy.co.uk/referral-programme
| Date | ★ | Review | What they said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 26 | 5 | Staff very friendly | "the referral code is such a hassle to receive a discount" |
| 15 Jul 26 | 1 | Poor awful service! | Discount sat on her account and was selectable, then full price was taken. Told it needed 7 days post-delivery: "that's a load of lies too" |
| 10 Jul 26 | 1 | AVOID!!!!! | "I reckon they just don't want to honour my wife's £80 referral bonus" |
| ~19 Jul 26 | 1 | Swerve them. | Referred 2 friends, earned credit, "their system wouldn't allow me to add it to the basket" |
| 4 Jul 26 | 1 | Shocking clinical failure | Bolt counted her own earned £40 as part of their "goodwill gesture". Referred 3 people; now threatening GPhC. |
| ~Jun 26 | – | Google, E. Méndez | "Voucher code for referral not issued. I do not recommend them." |
| 22 Jun 26 | 3 | Missed out on the referal bonus | Bolt insisted the housemate was already a customer. He wasn't. He went to Zavamed |
| 19 Jun 26 | 4 | Generally overall a great experience | "have referral money voucher to claim on orders and can never get it to work" |
| 8 Jun 26 | 1 | Have over 30 emails | Told he could stack codes, "waited until 4 people I had recommended ordered", then refused |
| 15 May 26 | 1 | Very unreliable service | 7 days post-approval, no medication, but "more interested in requesting I use my referral code to sign up other people" |
| 10 May 26 | 2 | I wish I hadn't switched | "my referral credit disappeared, and it now appears my account may have been closed" |
| 10 May 26 | 1 | Worst provider I have used | £40 never given; told to contact her bank; refused because she accepted delivery |
| 5 May 26 | 2 | I honestly thought I would be leaving a… | £100 confirmed in writing, £40 paid, then told the purchase fell outside the window |
| 18 Apr 26 | 5 | Really good customer service | "couldn't add my £40 referral discount at check in and ended up paying full price". Refunded on request |
| 15 Apr 26 | 4 | Communication is good but the website… | Gave them the code; "has not been deducted and I have still not been shown how to do this" |
| 3 Apr 26 | 2 | Scam referral scheme | "took a week of emailing to and fro to even activate the process… one of my referrals disappeared" |
| 11 Mar 26 | 1 | Terrible company to deal with | "Do not honour referral vouchers… Twice I have had them say they would look into this and twice they failed me" |
| 4 Mar 26 | 5 | My journey stated with a referral | Neither side got the discount until a named agent intervened |
| 28 Feb 26 | 2 | Bolt referral programme not as good as… | Left for MedExpress. Bolt's public reply: "We do however offer stacking" |
| 4 Oct 25 | 5 | Referal | Voucher not received. Fixed by support; both sides eventually refunded |
A. Capture friend contact at the outset
Ask the referred friend to claim the discount with their WhatsApp number or email as the first step. Yes, it is an ask before delivering any value, but a smaller one than requiring immediate onboarding and purchase.
Should they abandon the signup process, Bolt now has a point of contact to send reminders to. For attribution, if they return and register on another device, match them by contact.
I'd also consider shortening the discount claim window for referred friends from 6 months to 30 days, to bring signups and purchases forward.
The Flow
Two decisions carry the whole flow. The claim exists before either of them, so a pause, a device switch, or a "not yet" can no longer destroy the referral. Where the prescriber says no, the friend gets no treatment and nobody gets a reward. The correct outcome, not a failure.
The Screens
Medically supervised weight management. Your discount applies once a prescriber approves your consultation.
Sign up with this same number, or the £40 will not apply.
We will text you your link, and one reminder if you do not use it. Nothing else.
Sign up with email instead
Saved to the contact you chose, on any device.
A prescriber reviews your answers and decides whether treatment is appropriate. Your £40 applies only if it is.
B. Instrument the referral funnel
Instrumenting the digital referral funnel with 9 events:
- Three for the existing customer sending a referral link
- Six for the referred friend claiming, onboarding, paying, and receiving their first order
This makes it clear where the funnel breaks, so fixes can be designed against the break point.
| # | Event | Where | Written against |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | prompt_viewed | customer, in-app, signed in | customer's account id |
| 2 | share_tapped | customer, in-app | customer's account id |
| 3 | share_completed | customer, in-app | new share id |
| 4 | link_clicked | friend's phone, from WhatsApp | share id |
| 5 | claim_created | friend's phone, types email | new claim id, holding the friend's email and the customer's account id as referrer |
| 6 | consult_started | friend's laptop | claim id only if they returned via the emailed claim link. Cold: nothing yet, anonymous session |
| 7 | consult_declined | friend's laptop, if refused | claim id |
| – | Onboarding Q17 registers | end of the consultation | new account id. Email matched to the open claim row; orphan events from 6 and 7 stitched back |
| 8 | checkout_paid | friend's laptop | claim id + new order id |
| 9 | order_delivered | server | order id |
The above 9 events are joined by 4 ids that hand off in sequence: account_id, share_id, claim_id, order_id. The claim_id is written from the WhatsApp number or email the friend typed at the claim, so it survives a device switch and a refused cookie banner because the friend gave you the contact rather than being tracked.
Every event is written by your own backend to a database; at the moment it writes the row that caused it, so there is no tracking script to fail. The events live in the same database as the claims.
As far as I am aware, analytics tools like Amplitude or Mixpanel can connect two visits only when both visits carry an id you gave them. Your customer is signed in, so their visits carry one. The friend is a stranger. They tap the link on their phone carrying nothing, and if they sign up on a laptop three days later that looks like a brand new person, with nothing pointing back to the phone. Asking for one contact at the claim is what creates the link. It belongs in your database rather than a vendor's, because that same row is what decides who gets paid. Your database decides who is one person, and every event carries that answer with it.
Two numbers will mislead unless they are built carefully
- Link clicks. Not every click is a person. As soon as your customer pastes the link into the WhatsApp message box, WhatsApp opens it to build the preview card, before the message is sent, so your server records hits for links that never reached anyone. Those are easy to spot and drop: they announce themselves as WhatsApp and never run any JavaScript. Corporate email filters are the harder case, because they open links to check them for phishing and many look like an ordinary person browsing. Strip out the machines you can identify, then read click-to-claim as a rough guide rather than a headline number.
- Match rate, the share of registrations correctly joined back to their claim. The join relies on the friend registering with the contact they claimed with, and it fails in exactly one way: they use a different one. Two things narrow that gap, a disclaimer on the claim screen telling them to register with this same contact, and a flow that gets them through the consultation in one sitting.
C. Allow users to claim referrals seamlessly (Supabase build)
GitHub link to the build: github.com/joleneann/bolt-referral-tables
Attributing and releasing every referral discount cleanly, once every condition is met, is a priority. Assuming you require a unique email and phone number for every customer, the data points left to de-duplicate before a referred friend's first purchase are
- first name
- last name
- address line
- postal code
That is 16 permutations; only 4 need a human to look at the ID verification record, as these could be an existing customer opening a second account for the new-customer discount.
| first name | last name | address | postcode | verdict | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yes | yes | yes | yes | a human looks | could be father and son, same name, same address |
| yes | yes | yes | no | a human looks | could be the same person, different postcode |
| yes | yes | no | yes | a human looks | could be neighbours with the same names |
| yes | yes | no | no | a human looks | could be the same person at a different address |
| yes | no | yes | yes | approved | |
| yes | no | yes | no | approved | |
| yes | no | no | yes | approved | neighbours with the same first name |
| yes | no | no | no | approved | |
| no | yes | yes | yes | approved | family members |
| no | yes | yes | no | approved | |
| no | yes | no | yes | approved | |
| no | yes | no | no | approved | |
| no | no | yes | yes | approved | unrelated housemates |
| no | no | yes | no | approved | |
| no | no | no | yes | approved | |
| no | no | no | no | approved |
The cases your reviews flag as trouble today, husband and wife or housemates at one address, are resolved by this system, with every decision logged. This could cut the support time spent on manual fixes when the system breaks.
The system also ensures the correct reward amount is released, that no referrer ever gets a second £80, and that no friend's discount is released twice.
19 seeded cases and what the database decided in each
| Situation | What the database did | |
|---|---|---|
| Goes to a human | ||
| 1 | Same full name, same address, same postcode | photo ID checked, approved: could be father and son |
| 2 | Same full name, same address, different postcode | photo ID checked, approved: could be the same person at a different postcode |
| 3 | Same full name, same postcode, different address | photo ID checked, approved: neighbours with the same names |
| 4 | Same full name, nothing else matches | photo ID checked, approved: could be the same person at a different address |
| 10 | An existing patient claims again under a new email | photo ID checked, refused |
| 18 | The photo ID check is still pending | nothing releases until a human decides |
| Approved without a human | ||
| 5 | Same surname, address, postcode and bank card | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| 6 | Same address and postcode only | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| 7 | Same first name, same postcode | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| 8 | Nothing matches anyone | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| 11a | Two customers claim the same friend: the earlier claim | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| 17 | Registered, never ordered | approved, the bonus waits for the order |
| 19 | Claimed by phone, registered with an email | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| The payout | ||
| 12 | The referrer's first successful claim | approved, referrer paid 80 |
| 13 | The same referrer, second successful claim | approved, referrer paid 40 |
| 14 | A second 80 is attempted for the same referrer | the database refuses the write, so nothing is paid |
| Not a referral | ||
| 9 | The claimed contact already belongs to a patient | already a customer: no reward, nobody told |
| 11b | Two customers claim the same friend: the later claim | the earlier claim keeps it |
| Nothing happens yet, or ever | ||
| 15 | The window closes with no delivery | the window closed, nothing released |
| 16 | Clicked the link, never registered | held: nobody has registered |
6 claims went to a human, and every one of them turned on a full name. 3 claims matched an address or a postcode without matching both names. 0 of those were refused.
D. Content engines for education, adherence and retention
You collect at least 13 structured data points from every customer during onboarding, and I'd use them to send short-form personalised content signed off by the clinical team. The starting library won't be large; one piece can go to many customers.
The same questions, answered 5 ways
| Question | Meera Nair 42, female · Type 2 diabetes, vegetarian | Daniel Hughes 58, male · 6 daily medicines, AF on warfarin | Aisha Okafor 29, female · PCOS, on the pill, privacy first | Margaret Brennan 67, female · Knees, reflux, oral HRT, thyroid | Tom Whitlow 33, male · Binge history, nights, tried Saxenda |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2. Age band | 18 to 74 | 18 to 74 | 18 to 74 | 18 to 74 | 18 to 74 |
| Q3. Main reasons for losing weight | Managing a specific health condition; improving overall health | Avoiding or managing a health condition; becoming more active | Looking and feeling better; improving mood and mental wellbeing | Becoming more active; improving sleep and energy | Improving mood and mental wellbeing; improving sleep and energy |
| Q4. Height, weight, BMI | 165 cm, 82 kg, BMI 30.1 | 178 cm, 108 kg, BMI 34.1 | 168 cm, 88 kg, BMI 31.2 | 160 cm, 92 kg, BMI 35.9 | 183 cm, 128 kg, BMI 38.2 |
| Q5. Biological sex | Female | Male | Female | Female | Male |
| Q6. Pregnant, breastfeeding or trying to conceive | No | N/A | No | No | N/A |
| Q7. Ethnic background | Asian (Indian) | White British | Black British | White Irish | White British |
| Q8. Contraindications | None of the below | None of the below | None of the below | None of the below | None of the below |
| Q9. Cautions | None of the below | None of the below | Depression and anxiety | None of the below | History of binge eating disorder |
| Q10. Diagnosed conditions (lower BMI threshold) | Type 2 Diabetes; High Cholesterol | High Blood Pressure; High Cholesterol; Atrial Fibrillation; Obstructive Sleep Apnoea | Polycystic Ovary Syndrome; Depression linked to weight | Osteoarthritis in hips or knees; Acid Reflux (GORD); High Blood Pressure | None of the below |
| Q11. Interacting medications (from Bolt's list) | SGLT-2 inhibitor (dapagliflozin) | Warfarin; Digoxin | Oral contraceptives | None of the listed | None of the listed |
| Q12. Contraception agreement | Agreed. Uses a copper coil, non-oral | Agreed (does not apply) | Agreed. Will use condoms for 4 weeks after starting and after each dose increase | Agreed (does not apply) | Agreed (does not apply) |
| Q13. All conditions and medications (free text) | Metformin 1g twice daily; dapagliflozin 10mg; atorvastatin 20mg; vitamin D | Warfarin 4mg; digoxin 125mcg; bisoprolol 5mg; ramipril 10mg; atorvastatin 80mg; omeprazole 20mg (stomach protection) | Rigevidon (combined pill); sertraline 50mg | Oral HRT (estradiol 1mg + micronised progesterone 100mg); levothyroxine 75mcg; amlodipine 5mg; naproxen when knees flare | No regular medication. Ibuprofen occasionally. 8 to 10 pints across Friday and Saturday |
| Q14. Previous weight-loss medication | None of the above | None of the above | None of the above | None of the above | Saxenda, stopped after 4 months in 2024, weight regained |
| Q15. Anything else for the clinicians | Vegetarian, struggles to hit protein. Wants to keep home-cooked South Indian food | Wife does the cooking, he does not choose meals. Wants energy to keep up with grandchildren | Nobody at work can know. Asked whether the packaging is discreet | Knees limit exercise, worried she cannot move enough for it to work. Sleep is poor | Works nights Monday to Thursday, most calories land after 10pm. Tired of the lose-and-regain cycle |
What the engine serves each of them in week 1
Educated customers find adherence easier, retain longer, get results, and potentially refer more. The pieces can also be made shareable, with the shareable versions removing medicine names to comply with regulations.
E. Digital app for Bolt
Bolt’s digital surface, a mobile app with 4 tabs:
- a medicine tracker
- a home for the content pieces to land
- a progress and habit tracker
- an account page primed to send referrals through
The first tab sets GLP-1 dose reminders, prompts refills, and can track their other medications too. Learn serves one content piece a week and ends by offering a matching habit to add to the Track tab, which also logs their weight loss progress. On the referral tab, customers can send friends a primer on GLP-1s along with their referral link.
The form is the engine
Nothing new is asked of the patient. Every screen is driven by the consultation they completed before approval.
+ 1 signed acknowledgement
writes once, serves to everyone it fits
4 tabs, one word each
Refer earns the 4th slot: paid acquisition costs rise with scale, and referral is the release valve.
Meera.
left
right
arm
Answered within 24 hours. Your pen ships only after approval.
The injection changes how much you want to eat. It does not change what you eat, and that gap is where muscle loss comes from. Around 30% to 40% of weight lost on this treatment can be fat free mass.
A 2025 advisory from four US obesity and nutrition bodies suggests 1.2 g to 1.6 g of protein per kg of body weight per day during active weight loss. At 82 kg, that is roughly 98 g to 131 g a day.
There is no UK guideline number yet, and no trial has established the optimal amount. Treat the range as a target to aim at, not a rule.
Paneer carries about 16 g of protein per 100 g, so a 200 g portion is roughly 32 g. Besan is about 22 g per 100 g, so a chilla made with 40 g of flour adds around 9 g. Whole milk curd is about 3.5 g per 100 g.
Breakfast is where yours currently sits lowest. Curd or a besan chilla moves that meal without changing what the meal is.
The advisory is equally clear that protein alone will not protect muscle. It pairs the range with resistance training at least three times a week.
a friend to know
before starting.
Early experiments
You ask to improve the referral programme fast through experiments, and bring a clear process for generating and prioritising them. Every experiment below is aimed at increasing how many additional users each existing user successfully invites and carries a kill rule and most have a cited precedent or research.
| # | Experiment | Kill rule |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Give-only option, customers give all £80 | Low uptake by customers, higher churn by referred friends |
| 2 | Friend education kit | Low uptake |
| 3 | Different ask sequence for referred users | Referral rates similar across cohorts |
| 4 | Card in the monthly box | Low uptake and shares, no change in referral rates by exposed cohort |
| 5 | Personalised content engine | Low engagement |
| 6 | Referred friend updates | Privacy laws, no change to support follow-ups |
| 7 | Claim-first contact capture | If it turns away more consultations than it recovers |
| 8 | Friend's discount worded 3 ways | No version wins |
| 9 | Claim window, 6 months vs 30 days | If the shorter window converts fewer claims |
| 10 | De-duplication system | Rising support tickets |
Notes
1. Give-only option, customers give all £80Growth lead Daphne Tideman has cited how she referred more on BetterHelp, an online therapy platform, once a give-only option existed (gift 2 weeks of therapy, keep nothing). Reasons given was it felt less like selling, and the additional money gave a friend more time to try the offering.
The Journal of Marketing Research (2020) backs the mechanic: rewards given to the friend recruited more customers than rewards kept by the sender, at the same cost to the company. The caveat is that it may attract more bargain hunters who don't retain well.
2. Friend education kitFriends ask a customer with visible results "what did you do?", and many customers have no comfortable answer ready. The kit is a clinician-approved answer they can send. The question is common: in a BMJ Public Health survey (2025, 1,297 UK adults), 28.5% first heard about these medications from friends and family, against 9% from healthcare providers.
3. Different ask sequence for referred usersA referred customer knows people can talk about this treatment, because someone talked to them about it. They can be prompted to refer earlier, and possibly more often and observe how it fares.4. Card in the monthly boxA box reaches every paying customer every 4 weeks. A card congratulating them on their progress, with a scannable referral code could prompt them to refer, especially if it's observed that existing referrals cluster around delivery. Referral links could also be sent on email and Whatsapp as part of the delivery message.
5. Personalised content engineA Danish national registry study of 77,310 people starting semaglutide for weight loss found 31% stop within 6 months and 52% within a year, and that is in a cheaper access context than UK private pay. There are some complaints on Reddit of a lack of a structured education or behaviour programme. Pointers from the onboarding questionnaire are used to deliver relevant short-form content. LTV and retention of exposed users measure whether it works.
6. Referred friend updatesToday a customer hears nothing between their friend's claim and the credit arriving. Your reviews show that gap: "over 30 emails", "a week of emailing to and fro" to activate one credit. A status view in the app closes it: the customer sees each referral as claimed, delivered, credit released. It shows nothing more, because the friend's order details are the friend's data likely protected by GDPR laws. If a privacy review rejects even that summary, this dies.
7. Claim-first contact captureYour own terms say "if they navigate away or switch to a different device before purchasing, the referral won't track." Hims & Hers closes the same leak by tying the credit to the account the friend creates, so the referral survives a device switch. The test decides whether asking for contact up front turns away more consultations than it recovers in referrals.8. Friend's discount worded 3 ways
Every version is the same £40, worded as £ off, a % off, or account credit. The precedent is in the same CXL course: Heights, the supplement brand whose growth the course instructor ran, tested £15 off against 15% off for the same discount and saw results. Wording is free to change, so this is a cheap test.
9. Claim window, 6 months vs 30 daysShorten the friend's claim window from 6 months to 30 days. A shorter window pushes the friend to decide, and 2-3 reminders with a clear opt-out educate and remind the user. Kill switch is the shorter window converting worse.10. De-duplication systemBolt does not publish what its duplicate check matches on, but reviews show the customers it refuses share one pattern: two people at one address. This build separates a shared address from a shared identity with a human in the loop for certain cases. Kill switch is rising support ticket burden pertaining to deduplication and referral payouts.
About Me
I am a clinical nutritionist and growth marketer who builds with AI.
Here is my LinkedIn
You ask for someone who iterates faster than most product teams can finish scoping. Evidence of this ability is this document, with the referral tables running live on Supabase, the referred friend journey, the content engine, and the app screens.
Some of my past work, relevant to the role
A. ScopeX
We grew ScopeX Fintech from under 100 paying customers to more than 25,000 in under 12 months. Making referral our main source of growth was largely my decision after viewing the numbers. The tactic: a referral offer placed at the product's natural sharing moments. The result: roughly 40% of new customers arrived through referral, converted best and stayed longest.
B. My clinical nutrition practice
Since 2017 I have run an independent clinical obesity practice working with a GP and a psychiatrist, with about 250 clients. Effectively all of them arrived through 1:1 or GP referral.
This experience helps me understand the customers you work with: people with obesity, on treatment that changes appetite and mood, and how they adapt and adhere to treatment.
My clients generally referred when their results first became visible, which is consistent with your 26.8 average days to first referral.
Recently I created software with Next.js and Postgres which helps practitioners like me reduce marginal time on client consults with AI, and helps clients adhere to prescribed lifestyle interventions.
A 10-section intake adapts as the client answers it. AI drafts the treatment plan, and the clinician edits and approves it section by section. The client tracks habits and measurements daily. This was the build that fed into the freemium app idea I built out for Bolt.
C. Pawkit
My most recent project for a veterinary clinic helps clinicians manage their inboxes, stay in touch with pet parents between appointments and send them relevant pet health content by segmenting their client list in the language of the client's choice. Voice AI helps the veterinary physician take appointment notes, maintain a lifetime pet health record and use a RAG system integrated with up-to-date veterinary research data for diagnosis and treatments. A part of this buildout can be viewed here.
The first 90 days
| Track | When | What |
|---|---|---|
| Protect what works | Days 1-7 | Learn what drives Bolt's growth today. Break nothing that works. |
| Low hanging fruit | Days 2-30 | Ship high-confidence, easy experiments: owner, baseline, kill rule on each. Build the missing measurement. |
| Big bets | Days 1-30 | Clinical, product and engineering owners try to kill each bet. Survivors get built. |
| Strategy | By Day 60 | The route from K 0.0835 to 0.30, written while I still see the product as an outsider, revised weekly. |
| Day 90 check | Day 90 | Trusted K baseline, first experiment cycle complete, bets validated or killed, strategy current. |
Days 1-7: My first job is to learn Bolt's existing systems and growth factors today so nothing of what I build disrupts them. I walk through customer journeys first hand and write down each moment that feels dead, slow, confusing or magical. The same week I ask the people who built and run the current programme two questions: why are we growing, and if you were in my shoes, what would you do first. What looks broken to me may be holding something up; I find out which parts those are before touching any of them.
Days 2-30: Set up and run easy experiments which don't break existing channels. Look at existing analytics and measurement infrastructure and add/build what's missing.
Big bets. I build a big-bet list from week 1 from my observations. From day 30 I take the strongest bets to the clinical, product and engineering owners and ask them to kill each one. This is regulated healthcare. A growth experiment shipped without clinical sign-off is a compliance failure, even when it moves K. A bet nobody can kill gets built.
By day 60: I put the growth plan on one page: the route from K 0.0835 to 0.30, which factor of K we attack in which quarter, what gets built next, and what stays parked until the core loop moves. I write it in my first 90 days on purpose, while I still see the product as an outsider, and I expect the first draft to be about 70% right, so I revise it weekly as experiment results land.
By day 90: a trusted K baseline, the first experiment cycle complete with kill rules honoured, the big bets validated or killed, and the strategy current.